Dollar does not grow, the yen falls... Have got used.

If not to take in attention yen which actually played a role of the driver of the market, on Thursday trade of the basic currencies was characterised by two definitions: volatilnost and absence of a direction. Such picture can be observed in steams of the European currencies against dollar. The package of the American macroeconomic statistics published on Thursday, was positive for dollar as in aggregate, and from the point of view of each concrete indicator, however it could not stimulate growth of the American currency. The index of business activity FRB of Philadelphia in January has made 8.3 points, having appeared above the forecast (5 points) and it is essential above December value (-2.3 point). Such evolved components, as an index of new orders and an employment index positively look. Recently the subject of end of soft planting of the American economy is very popular among market observers, therefore index FRB of Philadelphia and its basic components support similar sights. Data on the beginnings of new buildings in December also have appeared better forecasts, supporting representations about situation stabilisation in the market of the real estate of the USA. Dynamics of the prices for oil on Thursday also was favorable for the American currency. On NYMEX the February future on light sweet bargained in dangerous affinity with psychological support of 50 dollars for barrel and the little above the previous minima on 49.90. However it also has not provoked categorical strengthening of dollar against the European competitors. The behaviour of profitableness of 10-year-old bonds of Exchequer of the USA completely reflected dynamics of dollar on FX. Attempt to punch resistance on 4.80 % has been undertaken and the maximum on 4.814 % is tested, all however has come to the end without results with profitableness returning to 4.76 %. Inability of dollar to take benefit from all positive of complete day, in our opinion, is caused by two factors. The first concerns a short-term situation in the market, namely that the yen was the driver of all events, and not so American macroeconomic statistics. Therefore achievements and dollar failures to euro and pound sterling on Thursday were dictated by succession of events in steams dollar/yen, euro/yen and pound/yen. The second factor includes not only a current situation, but also dollar falling in the fourth quarter of last year. In modern conditions of the international trade relations a dollar role as reserve currency, currency of calculations etc. has considerably decreased. Thus it occupies the lion`s share in currency portfolios of many large players, including Central Banks. The desire to reduce technical risks of portfolios leads to weakness of dollar even under condition of signals of stabilisation of the market of the real estate and "soft planting " national economy. It is necessary to pay attention and yen which participants of the market sold in a mass order against all liquid currencies as if throwing out "pieces of paper on a wind ". The decision of Bank of Japan to save the rate at former level of 0.25 % has put pressure upon national currency, but not it has defined a weakness primary factor. After end of session BoJ there has passed press conference Toshihiko Fukui where operating Bank of Japan "has left a door opened " for toughening of a policy of credits at session on February, 20th and 21. However market players have paid attention to that fact, that the January decision was accepted not unanimously in the ratio 6 members of session against three, that, according to experts, signalled about presence of pressure upon the Central Bank from the Ministry of Finance. Even if the Ministry of Finance will make concessions to Bank of Japan, and rates in February will be raised on 0.25 %, further steps within the limits of toughening of a monetary policy will be so slow, that does not complicate process carry trade, and, hence, leaves a negative mark on yen. The differential of rates in a yen question proves as it is impossible accurately. Hence, not to change yet a situation, the Japanese currency will be and to feel further pressure of sales to dollar, euro, to a sterling, aussi, and is possible even kivi. However short-term prospects, from the point of view of the technical analysis, allow to count not some correcting movement. The current situation in steam dollar/yen does not exclude course returning to 120, and is possible even to 120.20. Michael Shulgin Forexpf. Ru - Forex News / News Forex