Aktual`naya a subject. Will cost how much dollar to euro in December?

Pervaja half of autumn already behind, and it means approach of the solving period - the end of fiscal year. For large institutsionalnyh players this period means the beginning of Prenew Year`s fixing of profit, data of annual accounting reports, and also meetings of shareholders on which investment programs of the next year make a reservation. For speculators this period of time means possibility not bad to earn, having used revival and having joined the established tendency. The Prenew Year`s boom is not alien to the currency market, therefore at the moment we consider rather actual to discuss prospects of courses key valjut. We will simplify at once to ourselves a problem as we will not set as the purpose forecasting of any concrete levels for the end of year. We will prefer reflexions from position of trading ranges which are very inherent in the euro/dollar rate of exchange. A number of currency experts, not philosophising crafty, prefers to designate trading ranges on psychological technical marks, for example, 1 1, 1 etc. We do not challenge legitimacy of such approach, but we prefer to define band borders how it allows to make us the schedule, as is shown nizhe. At the moment the course saves a current range 1. Therefore us the answer to the following question interests: Where there will be a course by the end of December of current year? In a current range, in a range 1 or in a range 1? We join opinion of those experts which consider, that in current economic conditions the potential of achievement of level 1.46 or even 1.50 is higher, rather than probability of returning by 1.32. If we undertake to argue on an economic situation in an eurozone the list of positive statistical factors will appear is great enough. Thus we to it can add a position of the monetary authorities in the name of ETSB which saves till now "vigilance " concerning inflation. On the contrary, prospects of the American economy do not allow us to build optimistical forecasts. The best, on what we could while to count, it that in the near future the economic situation will cease to worsen, and the Federal Reserve not begins to reduce the rate and will maintain again a pause in a cycle of toughening monetary politiki. Silly to deny steady process of delay of economy of the USA as this fact is officially recognised by the Federal Reserve about what it was repeatedly spoken in the several final instructions leaving upon end of next session FOMC. That fact is remarkable, that we have got used to a former familiar expression: "the USA - the economic locomotive ". Similar, the sense of this statement has started to give in, as we do not observe in presence of delay of economic against delay of economy of the USA. The role "the locomotive in the unique person " was replaced by group of regions which continue to support economic growth. Even crisis of the hypothecary and credit market in the USA has not called similar crisis on scales in others gosudarstvah. Problems of the American economy cause formation of the following tendency. At first world investors start to search for the new market of actives for placing of the means. Having found such market, they start to buy currency of that state, where this market is located to begin process of acquisition of actives. As a result the Central Bank of the given state receives enormous flow of dollar weight which breaks stability and a risk level of its reserves. The Central Bank has a requirement in diversifikatsii own currency reserves, and this requirement is satisfied at the expense of sale "superfluous " dollars against alternative currencies with which acted as euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar etc. In the specified group of currencies, certainly, was in the lead and continues to be in the lead evro. On an example of China, and also many other things of the countries of Asia, the Near East, and also the countries of Latin America we could observe a situation which is described above. This tendency should stop, that we could start to speak about end of global falling of dollar. In other words, while the above described tendency remains in force, we can argue only on correcting strengthening of dollar, but we can not talk about tendency change. When world investors reduce a share of brave actives it puts pressure upon euro in the portfolios and leads to correcting strengthening of dollar. But fundamental prospects of economic remain are positive, therefore investors will continue to search for investments for actives with the raised degree of risk. It will support the European currency and to call despondency at dollara. We do not see the reasons which could change radically the developed situation till the end of current year. In the recent analytical comments we have defined the expectations of a course of pair euro/dollar in a range 1 and till now we will agree to differ. This range has already been tested, but attempt to be fixed in him has appeared unsuccessful. We expect repeated testing, however are not assured of that, what is it testing unlike the first attempt will be successful. In this case the course by the end of December remains in the field of the top border flowing diapazona. We repeatedly underlined, that we do not disregard a technical picture of long-term schedules of pair euro/dollar which yet does not give the signals, allowing to conduct reasonings on a turn of a trend of easing of the American currency. From the point of view of fundamental prospects we would like to note the following. Initial signals of end of the current tendency and formation of the tendency of growth of dollar for us will be: 40 percent falling of the raw prices, falling of rates of economic growth in China and India (at a rate of 3/4 percent in annual statistical base). As signals of continuation of weakness of the American currency we will consider forthcoming monthly data on inflow of the capital to the USA. If figures of September and October confirm the negative tendency of outflow of the capital, observed in August, we will be inclined to reconsider our expectations in the relation of a course of euro/dollar on the end of December in favour of the top border of a range 1. Michael Shulgin Forexpf. Ru - Forex News / News Forex